Secretary General Global Earthquake Model
Expanding the Boundaries of Global Earthquake Risk
Abstract: Since 2018, GEM’s global earthquake hazard and risk models have advanced through increased data collection and better characterisation of each of the core ingredients: source models, ground-motion modelling, exposure data, and vulnerability functions. The bigger shift in 2026, however, is not only incremental improvement, but a broader definition of what we mean by global earthquake risk. In this keynote, GEM’s 2026 global earthquake updates are presented in four acts: an expanding boundary of space, hazards, consequences, and time.
First, the hazard model becomes fully global, extending across the oceans so that onshore and offshore sources are treated consistently within one unified global framework. Second, we move beyond shaking alone by introducing a new global liquefaction model and combining it with infrastructure exposure to show where ground failure is likely to translate into disruption. Third, we broaden the notion of loss by adding embodied carbon loss alongside direct economic loss, linking seismic risk to repair and rebuilding choices, and their environmental impacts. Finally, we treat risk as a dynamic process by projecting trajectories to 2065 under explicit assumptions about exposure growth and evolving vulnerability.
The talk will focus on both the methodological and computational needs associated with these global products and will close by showing how GEM’s roadmap to 2030 continues this “boundary expansion”, with more time-dependent hazard and risk, new cascading processes such as fire-following, and a stronger focus on infrastructure and system risk.
Bio: Helen Crowley is Secretary General of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, a non-profit non-governmental organization that drives a global collaborative effort to develop open data, tools and software for state-of-the-art seismic hazard and risk assessment. She has an MEng in Civil Engineering from Imperial College London, and both an MSc and PhD in Earthquake Engineering from the ROSE School (Italy), and has over 20 years of experience in seismic risk and earthquake loss modelling. She was the coordinator of the first open Seismic Risk Model for Europe. She is the author/co-author of 200 publications, peer reviewer for over 20 international scientific journals and has served as Editor of Earthquake Spectra. Her awards include the 2009 European Geosciences Union Plinius Medal, the EERI’s 2012 Shah Family Innovation Prize and the 2024 SSA/EERI Joyner Memorial Lecture.